The US’ Arctic Gambit Unleashed
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New US policy targets Russia’s Arctic energy and Sino-Russian ties, reshaping regional power dynamics
Early signs of the new US policy toward Russia, including driving down global energy costs and applying further sanctions, will be felt directly by the Kremlin in the Arctic. Major LNG projects such as Novatek LNG on the Yamal Peninsula, where China remains an investor and which was designed to feed Northeast Asian markets, are now facing severe sanctions. This aims to deny Russia access to the world’s biggest LNG market and weaken the Sino-Russian strategic relationship in the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere.
To achieve this, Washington also seeks to undermine Beijing’s economic justification for developing the Northern Sea Route linking Asia with the EU and disrupt China’s attempts to use IoT instruments to assert political governance and influence over the region from ungoverned space instead of via terrestrial regional forums such as the Arctic Council.
Dr Tim Reilly will deliver an online webinar on 12th March 2025 from 14:00 to 15:00 (UTC), titled "The US’ Emerging Arctic Policy and the Sino-Russian Response," hosted by an Menas Associates accessible via this registration link. The session will explore the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Arctic, where early signs of a new US strategy are beginning to rattle the Kremlin.
The briefing will address:
- NATO's impact on the Arctic;
- The arrival of the BRICS in the region
- The implications of confining China and now Russia in the Pacific Arctic
- Hybrid sub-threshold level warfare throughout the emerging Eurasian Arctic
- The instrumentalisation of climate frameworks for geopolitical ends
- The morphing of the Sino-Russian relationship from a geoeconomic partnership in the Arctic to a strategic alliance in space.
As Arctic geopolitics intensify, Washington’s moves signal a strategic shift that could reshape global power dynamics in the region. The webinar will provide crucial insights into these evolving challenges.